Fire Lynn - not so fast.

 

There has been a lot of rumbling about firing Chargers Coach Anthony Lynn. I get it – they lose close games. But let’s not move to quick on this. 

With Tyrod Taylor as the QB and their core of players what record did you think they were going to have at the beginning of the year? 

Looking at the schedule I had them going 7-9 (Note – this was after I heard that Derwin James was going to be done for the year). I mean they opened with 3 of the top 8 teams in the league in the Chiefs and on the road against Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Did you really think they were going to win those games? So, I had them starting 2-3 with wins over Bengals and Carolina. The other wins I thought we could get were Jacksonville, Raiders (at home), Miami, Jets, and Broncos at home. 7-9 – not a great record. So where are they now? They would need to win 4 or their last 6 games to reach 7 wins.  

Despite all that - there is one reason you do not get rid of Lynn. Justin Herbert. 

He is on pace to break the rookie record for passing yards in a season, in one less game. While I am impressed with the yards, I am more impressed with the Touchdown to Interception ratio. 22 TDs to 6 INTS. 

He is special and will continue to be special. When you have a special player, you build around him. If they fire Lynn, it will likely mean a new offensive coordinator and QB coach. People forget that Herbert probably would have had a better college career had he had consistent offensive coordinators and/or coaches. He had three different offensive coordinators and 3 different coaches in his 4 years there. 

Let’s compare Troy Aikman and Alex Smith. Troy had 5 different offensive coordinators in his career. That’s in 12 years. However of the first 9 years, he only had three, David Shula, Norv Turner and Ernie Zampese with only 2 different head coaches, Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer

Alex Smith had a new offensive coordinator each year for the first 5 years of his career as many as Aikman had his whole career. I am not saying Smith could have been as good as Aikman, I am just saying that I think that Smith would have been a lot better earlier in his career had the 49ers provided stability there in coaching.  

Which brings me to Herbert. 

He is on pace to pass for close to 4450 yards, which is just a shade under what we got from Rivers last year. However, unlike Rivers he is on pace to throw 36 TDs and 10 Ints, a far cry from the 23 TDs and 20 Ints we got last year. The best year Tyrod Taylor ever had was 3035 yards passing with 20 TDs and 6 Ints. 

He has talent. Build around him. Why blow up the team. We have a young nucleus. I mean Ekeler is still in his prime, as is Keenan Allen.  Jalen Guyton, Mike Williams and Hunter Henry can still develop and are young. On defense, Bosa is in his prime as is Derwin James. Add in Kenneth Murray and Jerry Tillery and we have the makings of a good team. 

So play out the season, bring back Lynn and Bradley. Bring in a new special teams coach. The special teams have killed us this year. In the draft target Offensive Linemen (talking 2-3), Linebackers and depth at Running back. See what you have next year. If the team does not take a big step up (likely since there is a lot of room to step up with a 3-7 record) then you make adjustments to the coaching staff as needed. 

Updated Red Sox Wish List

Wish List 

Bats – George Springer – Michael Brantley – Mitch Moreland  ------ (2 of 3) 

Pitchers – Trevor Bauer – Charlie Morton - Marcus Stromarn – Alex Wood – Jake Odorizzi – Liam Hendricks – Pedro Baez -------- ( 5 of 8 )

Updates – 

Marcus Stroman signed with Mets

Charlie Morton signed with Braves

NBA Draft night - Let's Change It Up.

 

The NBA draft is tonight. Here is the order of the top 12 picks in the Draft. 

1. Minnesota Timberwolves

2. Golden State Warriors

3. Charlotte Hornets

4. Chicago Bulls

5. Cleveland Cavaliers

6. Atlanta Hawks

7. Detroit Pistons

8. New York Knicks

9. Washington Wizards

10. Phoenix Suns

The concept for the draft has been around for years. All the teams that don’t make the playoffs are put into a lottery. The team with the worst record has the best chance of getting the top pick, 2nd worse team has the 2nd best chance and so on and so forth. 

I hope you can all see the glaring issue with this. 

That’s right – the Golden State Warriors have the 2nd pick in the draft. That’s right the team that went to 5 straight NBA finals starting in 2015 and won 3 Titles has the 2nd pick in the draft. Despite their record this year the core of the team is still intact, they were just hobbled by injuries.

Their record gave them the 2nd best chance to land the # 1 pick. However, their record this year should not mean they get the 2nd pick. The NBA needs to change up the Draft Lottery. 

The other glaring issue I have with this is that of all the non-playoff teams, Minnesota has the 4th most amount of wins the last 3 years. I get that they had the 2nd least amount of wins this year but still, I don't think they should get the 1st pick. 

So how would I change it up? And who would get the 1st pick?

Here is the process I would propose

Take all the non-playoff teams and calculate their record for the last 3 seasons (including the just completed year). The team with the least number of wins gets the 1st pick, 2nd worse record gets the 2nd pick and so on until all the non-playoff teams are slotted. Then take the records of the playoff teams and rank them from worse record to best record for the concluded season. Worse record gets the next pick after the lottery until that round is slotted. 

 If there are any ties with the non-playoff teams, take the record of the current season and if there is still a tie, look at their records 4 seasons back. 

If there is a tie with the playoff teams, take their record the past 3 seasons to break the tie, if there is still a tie, look at their records 4 seasons back. 

It’s simple. It does not introduce controversy. 

So with that formula here would be the 1st round slots for the draft

table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; }

non-playoff teams
	Pick		Wins last      3 years
	1	New York Knicks	67
	2	Chicago Bulls	71
	3	Atlanta Hawks	73
	4	Phoenix Suns	74
	5	Cleveland Cavaliers	88
	6	Memphis Grizzlies	89
	7	Sacramento Kings	97
	8	Charlotte Hornets	98
	9	Detroit Pistons	100	Detroit had a less wins this year - gets tie breaker over Washington
	10	Washington Wizards	100
	11	Minnesota Timberwolves	102
	12	New Orleans Pelicans	111
	13	San Antonio Spurs	127
	14	Golden State Warriors	130
Playoff teams			Record this year
	15	Orlando Magic	33
	16	Brooklyn Nets	35	Brooklyn had fewer wins (105) than Portland (137) last 3 years so they get the tie breaker
	17	Portland Trail Blazers	35
	18	Dallas Mavericks	43	Dallas had fewer wins (100) than Philadelphia (146) last 3 years so they get the tie breaker
	19	Philadelphia 76ers	43
	20	Miami Heat	44	Tie Breaker - wins last 3 years Miami (127) Oklahoma City (141) Utah (142) Houston (162)
	21	Oklahoma City Thunder	44
	22	Utah Jazz	44
	23	Houston Rockets	44
	24	Indiana Pacers	45
	25	Denver Nuggets	46
	26	Boston Celtics	48
	27	Los Angeles Clippers	49
	28	Los Angeles Lakers	52
	29	Toronto Raptors	53
	30	Milwaukee Bucks	56

The Warriors have almost twice as many wins as the Knicks the last 3 years and they get the 2nd pick and the Knicks, which have the worst record the last 3 years, are relegated to the 8th pick. The T-wolves have 35 more wins the last 3 years than the Knicks - 10 more per season and they get the 1st pick. Something has to change. 

This process is straight forward. Simple. Something the NBA Draft Lottery has not been as long as I can remember.

 

Step Aside Andrew Luck

 Andrew Luck holds the NFL record for most passing yards in a season by a rookie quarterback with 4,374 yards in 2012. That record is in danger of being broken, not just once but twice. 

Both Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are on pace to break the record held by Luck. 

Justin Herbert

In 7 games as a starter Justin has passed for 2,146 yards. He is on pace to pass for 4,598 yards this season. In order to break the record held by Luck, he only needs to average 279 yards a game the rest of the way. As an FYI, in his 7 starts, he has surpassed that in 5 starts. Two starts he did not eclipse 279. one start he passed for 264 and the other 278. 

The remaining games he plays are against Miami, Jets, Bills. Pats, Falcons, Raiders, Denver and Chiefs.With that schedule, I think he has a shot. These teams average giving up 253.65 yards a game. If he averages the same amount of yards those defenses gives up, he will have about 2,030 more passing yards. That added to the stats he has already done and he would have 4,175 yards. While that is still 198 yards short of the record of 4,374 yards passing, I think he can average a little more than the yards these teams are giving up. In order to break the record he only needs to pass for 25 more yards per game then those teams are giving up. Very very likely he breaks the record. 

One other thing to keep in mind, he has put nearly all these stats up with out the help of Austin Ekeler, who is slated to return in week 11. His presence and pass catching ability will help the offense. One could argue that with Austin in the backfield the Chargers may run more, which may be true but I think having Austin back there will open up things in the passing game. I mean teams are already biting on play action pass now against the Chargers, imagine what they would do with a threat like Austin in the backfield. 

Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow has passed for 2,272 yards thus far. He only needs to average 263 yards a game to break the record. While he has had two games where his yards passing were under 200 (193 vs the Chargers and 183 vs the Ravens) he has still averaged 284 yards passing a game. His remaining schedule consists of the Steelers, Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys, Steelers, Texans, and Ravens. If he averages the same amount of yards these teams are giving up he will have 1,837 more yards, making his total passing yards 4,109 yards, about 265 yards short of the record. So he would need to average 34 more yards against those teams than what they average giving up. While it may seem doable, he plays the Steelers twice and they give up 214.6 per game and they play the Ravens in which he passed for a paltry 183 yards. Oh and by the way he plays against Washington which gives up the least amount of passing yards a game at 185.6. 

Not an easy road ahead for him. 

I think Justin will break the record and Burrow will come very close but not quite make it. Either way both have improved their teams (despite the Chargers record) and added some energy into their fan bases. The impressive thing is, if Justin breaks the record he will do it in 15 games since he did not play in the 1st game of the season. 

I do think regardless of where they end up, that they both will break the record for most 300-yard passing games in a season by rookie quarterback. Andrew Luck has 6. Burrow has 5 and Herbert has 4. 

Sources

NFL Defensive Passing Yards

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=D&cat=T&sort=passypg

Red Sox Wish List

It’s that time of year when we all put together our Christmas List. With that in mind here are the some of the items on my Christmas List specific to the Red Sox 

Wish # 1

CF – Rumors are the Red Sox have reached out to Jackie Bradley Jr to gauge his interest in coming back. While I know a lot of Red Sox fans would like to see George Springer in CF next year, I for one feel better with JBJ’s glove in CF. While I know he is not a world beater with the bat. His defense makes up for it. I would like to see the Red Sox bring him back for 2 years, that would allow us to bring up Jarren Duran slowly. Plus if Duran is brought up next year and he looks legit, we can move JBJ’s contract at the deadline if we need another starter (see below). If we miss out on JBJ, then look to bring in Michael Brantley and have Andrew Benintendi slide over to CF. 

Wish # 2

2 Starting Pitchers – A lot of people are pointing at Trevor Bauer. While he will elevate any team that he goes to. Initially I say pass. Why? He will cost a lot of money and we already have a lot of money tied up in Sale and Eovaldi. However given that we won’t have Sale until midseason and with Eduardo Rodriguez a question mark as he recovers, I think it makes sense to bring Bauer in. So let me throw out Plan A and Plan B 

Plan A – Bring in Bauer and Marcus Stroman. That would make our rotation as follows:

Bauer 

E Rod 

Eovaldi

Stroman

Tanner Houck

Once Sale gets back we can slide Tanner or Stroman to bullpen, depending on how they are pitching. Although I really like the idea of converting Eovaldi to a closer down the line. He’s got the stuff for it and I think he would thrive in the role, however he will still be a sold # 3 starter. If we miss on Stroman – have Bloom see if we can bring in Charlie Morton, but only if we get Bauer and miss on Stroman. I like Stroman cause he has pitched in the AL East and has experience in the parks and against the teams in the AL East, although he was offered a qualifying offer so he will cost us a pick. 

Plan B – If we miss on Bauer. Go after two of the following three pitchers: Alex Wood, Jake Odorizzi and Marcus Stoman. But I would only do this if we think E Rod will be back 100% and we think Sale will be back 100%. If we are getting signs that E Rod or Sale will struggle or they do struggle next year. We go with Plan B and look to pick up a starter at the deadline next year. Signing Odorizzi will not cost us a draft pick. And if we miss on two of those targets put Pivetta and Houck at the back of the rotation and see how it goes. This would make our rotation:

E Rod

Eovaldi

Alex Wood/Jake Odorizzi/Marcus Stroman

Alex Wood/Jake Odorizzi/Marcus Stroman

Tanner Houck

Then slide in Sale once he is back. 

OR

E Rod

Eovaldi

Alex Wood/Jake Odorizzi/Marcus Stroman

Tanner Houck

Nick Pivetta

Then slide in Sale once he is back. 

Wish # 3 

2 Bullpen Arms

There are a lot of closer options out there. The good thing is, I think teams are going to be conservative in the off-season because of the limited profits they got in this Covid year. So this is who I would bring in. 

Liam Hendricks – Closer. A’s did not give him a qualifying offer meaning he wont cost us a draft pick. If we miss here, go after Brad Hand. 

Pedro Baez – Set up. I would give him closer like money so that we have two shut down guys at back of bullpen. If we cant bring in Baez look to bring in Blake Treinen. 

Wish # 4 

2B Position 

I really like bringing in Kolton Wong or Tommy La Stella. It would make sense however, I dont want to bring them in and limit a position for Jeter Downs. So I would go with an in-house option better. I think we should give the job to Michael Chavis and have Christian Arroyo as his back-up. I think giving Chavis consistent time at second will help him be more consistent at the plate. If he struggles, we can incorporate Jeter Downs later in the year. 

Wish # 5 

Bench

I think we need to bring back Mitch Moreland. I think having him and Bobby Dalbec manning first will give us some balance (righty-lefty) and gives us a great glove at 1st to come off the bench (in games where Dalbec is starting). Plus I think the mentoring he can do with Dalbec will be valuable not to mention having JD Martinez there to help Dalbec with the hitting aspect. 

Wish # 6

Extend Devers

We need to lock up Devers now, before he has another great season. I think we go after him hard to sign an extension so don’t have another will he stay, does he want to stay situation like we had with Mookie. Also negotiate with Dustin Pedroia to a settlement so we can open up a roster spot.

Lineup

If we did all these moves here would be your lineup 

        1 Alex Verdugo – RF – (L)

        2 Xander Bogaerts – SS – (R) 

        3 Rafael Devers – 3B – (L)

        4 JD Martinez – DH – (R)

        5 Mitch Moreland – 1B - (L) or Bobby Dalbec – 1B – (R)

        6 Christian Vazquez – C – (R)

        7 Andrew Benintendi – LF – (L)

        8 Michael Chavis – 2B – (R)

        9 Jackie Bradley Jr – CF –(L) or Michael Brantley – LF (with Andrew sliding to CF) (L)

26 man roster

1 C Christian Vazquez 

2 C Kevin Plawecki

3 1B Mitch Moreland 

4 1B Bobby Dalbec 

5 2B Michael Chavis 

6 3B Rafael Devers 

7 SS Xander Bogaerts 

8 UTL Christian Arroyo

9 RF Alex Verdugo 

10 CF Jackie Bradley Jr 

11 LF Andrew Benintendi 

12 UTL Jonathan Arauz

13 DH JD Martinez 

14 SP Trevor Bauer

15 SP Chris Sale

16 SP Nathan Eovaldi

17 SP Marcus Stroman

18 SP Tanner Houck

19 SP Eduardo Rodriguez

20 RP Liam Hendricks 

21 RP Pedro Baez 

22 RP Matt Barnes 

23 RP Ryan Braiser 

24 RP Darwinzon Hernandez 

25 RP Phillips Valdez 

26 RP Josh Osich

Note we can have Nick Pivetta on the roster until Sale is back and use him in long relief and spot starts. 

We add the following in estimated salary

Trevor Bauer – 130 Mil – 4 years

Marcus Stroman – 70 Mil – 4 years

Liam Hendriks – 32 Mil – 3 years

Pedro Baez – 24 mil – 3 years

Mitch Moreland – 4.5 Mil – 2 years

Jackie Bradley Jr – 16 Mil – 2 years or Michael Brantley 28 Mil – 2 years 

A couple of notes 

1 - 

If we do miss out on Bauer that would open up more money to go get Springer. I like Springer a lot, I just think we have bigger holes in pitching. If we do miss on Bauer and are able to bring in Stroman and another solid starter, and two solid bullpen arms, then I would take a look at Springer.. 

Ok I had to take a swing at this IF we get Springer - here is what I think our lineup would look like:

        1 Alex Verdugo – RF – (L)

        2 Xander Bogaerts – SS – (R) 

        3 Rafael Devers – 3B – (L)

        4 George Springer - CF - (R)

        5 JD Martinez – DH – (R)

        6 Mitch Moreland – 1B - (L) or Bobby Dalbec – 1B – (R)

        7 Christian Vazquez – C – (R)

        8 Andrew Benintendi – LF – (L)

        9 Michael Chavis – 2B – (R)

This lineup does remind me somewhat of the 2004 lineup in the amount of depth in the lineup. I know Andrew and Chavis have struggled but having them near the bottom of the lineup may be less pressure, then again they dont have much protection in the lineup down there. 

2 - 

If we do get Bauer and miss on Stroman, I would lobby hard to bring in Morton. I mean can you imagine the following rotation we would have near the end of next year

Bauer

Sale

E Rod

Morton

Eovaldi 

This of course is IF everyone comes back healthy. 

3 - 

If we miss out on Bauer and Stroman, I would bring in one free agent starter and see what Pivetta and Houck can do on the back end of the rotation with Sale, Eovaldi and E Rod managing the top of the rotation. 

Tom Brady Decision

In case you didn't know Tom Brady is a free agent. He has a choice to stay with the Patriots or choose another team. While some may say that the market for a 42 year old Quarterback should only be as a back up, you are missing the point.

Remember awhile ago, Peyton Manning was coming off neck surgery, he changed teams and won a Super Bowl with the Broncos. I know Peyton was 36 at the time that he changed teams, which is a big difference.

But this is Tom Brady. That guy may play until he's 50. He has played in 9 Super Bowls. He has more playoff wins as a player than 27 different NFL teams. Let that sink in. He also has been in more Super Bowls than all the NFL teams, aside from the Patriots.

If there is a player that deserves to experience the free agent process, albeit this late in his career, it is Tom Brady.

Now Tom Brady is a polarizing figure, not because of anything he has done but because he wins. Because of that, most people either hate him or love him, there is not a lot of in between.

One thing I need to clarify. I am not a Tom Brady fan, never have been. I do admire him for what he has accomplished. I just don't have a Tom Brady jersey or poster. I grew up idolizing Joe Montana, so in my mind no one should pass him, although Brady has in fact surpassed him. The other the reason I distance myself from him and the Patriots for that matter, is I am a die hard Red Sox fan. As such many have assumed that means I cheer for the Patriots. That is not the case. But that is another topic.

So what should Tom do?

Anything he wants. What fans don't realize sometimes is that being a free agent is great but it is also stressful. You are opening up the chance to change teams, which often can be good, but you also are changing cities and communities. Most fans think, they make millions, they can live where ever they want. I don't think it is that easy, you have to weigh the input of a wife and kids. Uprooting your family to sign on with another team is not easy.

Joe Montana brought up a great point in the article below, it take time to get used to the team and get used to the playbook and get on the same page as your coaches and players. Those things don't happen overnight.

If you look at the success of the Patriots, a lot of it is due to consistency in the head coach and quarterback.You could even add the time that Josh McDaniels has been there as a key component.

If I were Tom, I would wait and see what the Patriots do in the off-season, as well as any other teams he might consider signing with. Let them provide the team that he wants. His legacy will not be stained by changing teams, it will not lessen what he has accomplished.

If I am an Owner or GM that is an upgrade at Quarterback away from contending, I would sign Tom Brady, I think bringing in a proven winner can only help your franchise.

I liken it to when the Dodgers brought in Kirk Gibson from the Tigers in the late 80's. During Spring Training someone pulled a prank on him. He did not appreciate it and even said to the team, this is why you guys lose. He set the proper tone in Spring Training and they ended up winning the World Series. That may be a leap in logic, but I think the lesson may apply.


reference:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/joe-montana-gives-important-advice-to-tom-brady-ahead-of-impending-2020-free-agency/

Pete Rose deserves to be in Hall of Fame....just not yet

With the recent controversies over the Astros and Red Sox titles, a lot of noise has started again about granting Pete Rose eligibility into the Hall of Fame.

First off, I do believe that Pete Rose deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.......just not yet.

Let me explain.

As I understand it, Pete Rose agreed to a Life Time Ban if Major League Baseball agreed not to issue a determination if he bet on baseball.

That's pretty straightforward. He agreed to it. I think we should honor that agreement. I don't think in his lifetime, he should be able to have the status of a Hall of Famer.

Does he deserve to be in the Hall? Yes he does. So when he passes away, open up the voting and let the voters decide.  When he passes away, have him entered into the voting like any player that is eligible in their first year. In order to be voted in, if he gets 75% of the voters voting for him in his 1st year, he will be voted in. But 2 things have to happen in my opinion for this to happen.

1 - He must pass away. I know that sounds morbid, but he agreed to the Lifetime ban. Once he passes away, he will have the ability to be voted in.

2 - Before the voting opens up for him, the voting needs to be opened up for the members of the 1919 White Sox. Allow them to be voted on much like any player in their first year of eligibility. I agree that the White Sox throwing the World Series is a black mark. Those players have all passed on, they are not going to reap any benefits of being voted in. I still don't think Joe Jackson should be held out of the Hall of Fame voting and don't think he was throwing the Series.

Career stats - Joe Jackson

Avg - .356
At Bats per Home Run  - 92.24
At Bats per Triple  - 29.64
At Bats per Double  - 16.22
At Bats per RBI  - 6.29
At Bats per Run  - 5.71

1919 World Series Stats

Avg - .375
At Bats per Home Run  - 32.00
At Bats per Triple  - 0.00 (he didn't record a triple in the Series)
At Bats per Double  - 10.67
At Bats per RBI  - 5.33
At Bats per Run  - 6.4

His line in the Series

.375 Avg with 5 Runs, 12 Hits, 3 2B's, 1 HR, 0 Errors.

Not seeing that he was throwing the Series.

Keep in mind, he was removed from Baseball after the 1920 season at the age of 33, so he could have had 4-5 more productive years.


Reference

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Banning_of_Pete_Rose

NBA Draft Resolution

The NBA is going to have a PR Nightmare at the end of the season. Ok, maybe not a nightmare but something that should cause the NBA to restructure the Draft Lottery.

If you have not checked the standings in the NBA, you should. The Golden State Warriors are sitting in last place in the entire NBA. They have only won 10 games. That is in large part to Klay Thompson being out the whole year and Stephen Curry only having played in 4 games. I guarantee if they were both healthy the record of that team would be much different.

So if you are the Warrriors Coach or GM, what do you do. There is no reason to bring those players back early. Let them rest up. It means more to the franchise if they stay near the bottom. They have a 14% chance of winning the top pick in the draft if they finish with the worst record in the league. Do they really need the top pick in the draft. No - they are a Title Contender with Curry and Thompson on the court, why should they have the possibility of getting the top pick in the draft.

If you think this scenario as it is playing out seems familiar, you are right. It happened when the Spurs David Robinson was out most of the year in 1996-1997 with back problems. (he did play in 6 games that year). The team struggles, became a lottery team and ended up drafting Tim Duncan. Several titles later, that move played out for the Spurs.

The league needs to change the lottery. One small suggestion to make the system work better.

Instead of the draft being based merely on the prior years standings, how about we base it off the prior 3 years standings. Makes sense to me.

In the instance of the Spurs, this was the draft order and the record of each team the year that Tim Duncan was drafted (1997):

1 San Antonio Spurs      20-62
2 Philadelphia Sixers      22-60
3 Boston Celtics              15-67
4 Vancouver Grizzlies     14-68
5 Denver Nuggets       21-61
6 Boston Celtics       15-67
7 New Jersey Nets       26-56
8 Golden State Warriors  30-52
9 Toronto Raptors       30-52
10 Milwaukee Bucks       33-49
11 Sacramento Kings       34-48
12 Indiana Pacers       39-43
13 Cleveland Cavaliers      42-40

Had the league based the draft lottery on the worst record of the prior 3 years, here would be the list of teams: (records below do not include Toronto or Vancouver whose first season was 1995-1996)

1 Philadelphia 64 182
2 LA Clippers 82 164
3 Boston         83 163
4 NJ Nets         86 160
5 Dallas         86 160
6 Minnesota 87 159
7 Milwaukee 92 154
8 Golden State 92 154
9 Denver         97 149
10 Washington 104 142
11 Sacramento 112 134
12 Detroit         128 118
13 Cleveland 132 114

If you look at these standings, San Antonio would not have been in the lottery based on the 3 year record. This would give teams that have had the worst records over the past 3 seasons the best chances to improve. 

If we use the same process on this years standings - this would be the draft lottery order for this year, based on standings as of 1-24-2020

1 Golden St. 10 36

2 Atlanta         11 34

3 New York 12 33

4 Cleveland 12 33

5 Washington 15 29

6 Charlotte 15 30

7 Minnesota 15 29

8 Sacramento 15 29

9 Detroit         17 28

10 Chicago         17 29

11 New Orleans 17 28

12 Brooklyn 18 25

13 Phoenix         18 26

Again Golden State would have the best chance to win the lottery based on the current set up. If we factor in the records of the prior 3 years, here is what the order would be:

1 New York 58 141

2 Phoenix         58 150

3 Atlanta         64 145

4 Chicago         66 144

5 Memphis 75 133

6 Cleveland 81 128

7 Sacramento 81 127

8 Dallas         85 123

9 Brooklyn 88 119

10 Orlando         88 121

11 Charlotte 90 119

12 Washington 90 118

13 Detroit         97 112

Again you will notice the team with the best chance in the current format, Golden State is not even in the top 13 lottery teams. I think that the 3 year record is more indicative of allowing teams that are near the bottom to have a better chance at the top pick. 

One thing I want to be clear. I don't think the Spurs were wrong in not rushing David Robinson back in 1996-1997 season and I don't think the Warriors are wrong for not rushing either Curry or Thompson back. Both players are fun to watch when they are healthy and given that they are out of playoff contention, let them heal up for next season. 

One other bonus of this format is that it would lessen the likelihood of a team tanking one year to get a better chance at the top pick, since it would be based on the prior 3 seasons. The possibility of tanking is still there, but not as great as in the current process. 

College Football Playoffs

This season has been a first for me. For years, I have enjoyed watching college football but only the teams that I root for. This year however, I found myself watching a lot more games. I even watched SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and gasp even some games of the Independent teams.

I like the way that college game is set up. One thing would basically double the popularity of the game - a true college playoff.

Imagine this - the college championship game played......the week before the Super Bowl. It would
have no competition. (for those of you thinking the Pro Bowl is competition, do me two favors, get yourself tested and whatever you do, do not procreate)

So how could you make the College Playoffs more inclusive and better.

Here is what I propose.

The college season ends roughly the last week of November So here is what the schedule would look like:

The tournament would start the 2nd week of December (conferences can still have the conference title games the week before)

Here is what the schedule would look like:

12-15-2019 - All 16 teams play

12-29-2019 - 8 Remaining teams play

1-12-2020 - Remaining 4 teams play

1-26-2020 - Championship Game

Yes - you saw it right - 16 teams. The teams would be seeded 1-16 depending on their rankings with the following criteria

• ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, and SEC would have their top two teams get bids (this does not mean the teams that play in the Conference Title game automatically get in, case in point Penn State would get the nod of going to the tournament over Wisconsin because of a better record)
• American Athletic, Conference USA, Mid American, Mountain West and Sun Belt Conference Winners as well as the highest ranked Independent team. 

Based on this years standings - here would be the match ups for the first week. 

1 LSU - SEC 1st Team

16 Miami (Ohio) - Mid American Winner

8 Penn State - Big 10 2nd Team

9 Utah - PAC 12 2nd Team

5 Georgia - SEC 2nd Team

12 Boise State - Mountain West Winner

4 Oklahoma - Big 12 1st Team

13 Virginia - ACC 2nd Team

6 Oregon - PAC 12 1st Team

11 Memphis - American Athletic Winner

3 Clemson - ACC 1st Team

14 Appalachian State - Sun Belt Winner 

7 Baylor - Big 12 2nd Team

10 Notre Dame - Independent Winner

2 Ohio State - Big 10 1st Team

15 FAU - Conf USA Winner

I would predict the next week would have the following matchups

LSU

Penn State

Georgia

Oklahoma

Oregon

Clemson

Baylor

Ohio State

The final four would be

LSU

Georgia

Clemson

Ohio State

The Final would then be:

LSU

Clemson

I know a lot of you are saying - that was the match-up we had in the final, why go through all this trouble. The reason - all teams have skin in the game. If you want to get in, you have to be the best in your conference (or for some of the BCS conference one of the top two). 

This would allow that the title is decided on the field, not in the papers. This would not be a popularity contest. And this allows the smaller conferences to prove they belong. 

The schedule would allow the student athletes ability to juggle books and school. The first two games are after the time when most schools finish their fall semester. Only 4 teams would be playing in the next semester. It is very manageable

Some may say adding potentially 4 more games to a teams schedule is too much. Please take a look at Hawaii. They played 15 games this year. All the NCAA has to do is restrict the non-conference schedules by one. You can also have some of the conferences reduce their conference games by one. That would more than make up for it. 

One argument I can see coming is this would lessen the Conference Championship games. It may. But teams at the point will be trying to win to get a higher seed in the playoffs. Coaches will realize this, players and fans will realize this. 

The amount of money that would go to for that Championship game would be much higher than it currently is. This year the Championship game was held on January 13, the same weekend as the divisional playoffs in the NFL. If you held the Championship game on 1-26 between the NFL Conference Championships and the Super Bowl - imagine the publicity. Especially if you get a dark horse team that generates more fan interest (similar to the NCAA Basketball Tourney)

Conferences would be in favor of it because the TV contracts for this would increase quite a bit. It would also mean extra home games as the first round would be at the field of the higher seed. For the second round you can have the games be hosted by bowl games that may be squeezed out of having bowl teams because of the expanded playoff. 

The bowl rotation for the top 4 teams could remain the same. 

It is a win-win for the fans, the conferences would make more money, players would get more TV time to market their skills, and having two weeks between games would allow players to rest. 

The NCAA just needs to do it - the fans, players and conferences would all benefit. 

Congrats to Jeter and Walker

Congrats to both Derek Jeter and Larry Walker for being voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. It is a very prestigious honor. Derek made it on his first try and this was Larry's 10th year of voting. Very well deserved on both fronts.

Leading up to the voting, I was perplexed when I saw an example of one of the voters ballot and it had only one person on it - Derek Jeter. I am not disputing that vote, Derek deserved to be voted in on his first try. What I have a problem with is that this voter only voted for one person. The voters have the chance to elect up to 5 or 6 players. The catch is if players do not get a certain number of votes for a year, they drop off the ballot. While I agree that on this ballot Derek Jeter was heads and shoulders above all other players, the other players that are deserving of having the chance to continue their attempt at getting into the Hall of Fame may have been left off. As much as this was frustrating to me, this was not the biggest frustration about the ballot.

I would love to see the ballot of the one voter that did not vote for Derek Jeter. I think he/she should make their ballot public. I would be very interested in seeing who is on that persons ballot. We may even want a drug test on that voter. Serious brain fault.

Although I am a HUGE Red Sox fan, there is not a player I respect more and has meant more to the game, to his team and organization than Derek Jeter. It has been incredible to watch in back to back years Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera be voted into the Hall of Fame. Seeing them enter the Hall of Fame also means I don't have to see them on the field of play anymore.

My favorite moment of Mariano's career was a time in which he blew back to back saves against the Red Sox. The next game the Yankees were at Fenway, the fans gave him a standing ovation when he came onto the field for warm ups. He was smiling and laughing it off. Such a classic guy. I still get teary eyed when I remember in the All Star game that all the players left the field and left him on the mound alone. What a tribute.

The other classy moment in both their careers was in 2005. Opening day against the Red Sox. The Red Sox hoisted their 2004 Championship flag. If you recall, that was the year that the Red Sox rallied from 3 games down to win the series 4-3. I can only imagine how hard it was for the Yankees to watch that celebration, However, and this is a tribute to Joe Torre as well, all the Yankees players were on the dugout steps applauding.

Such class acts and despite one voter being brain dead by not including Derek on their ballot, it is a very very well deserved honor. Congrats Derek!

When can a Fan become a free agent?

After each off season in football, baseball and basketball, there is a season that avid fans follow, it's called the off-season.

For some fans, it is almost as exciting as the season. It involves trading, drafting and free agent signings. The off season is packed full of rumors with fans and media alike reading too much into players selling houses or making visits to teams.

For the players, they know once they sign their first contract, they will have the chance to become a free agent. It can be an exciting part of their careers when players become a free agent for the first time, as they have the choice of where they want to go, provided their ideal destination shares the interest. One thing to consider, when players become free agents for the first time, it is their first experience with freedom. Up until this point they have either been drafted or traded in most cases without their consent.

While it has become accepted that players will change teams to get a bigger payday, get closer to a championship, extend their career, or get closer to home, it has become less acceptable for fans to become free agents.

I wonder why that is. If a player chooses a team via free agency and that team implodes and is moving more towards a rebuild than a championship, fans understand if that player asks for a trade.
Why can't fans do the same thing.

For me, growing up I was a 49ers fan. My all-time favorite player was and forever will be Joe Montana. When he was traded by the 49ers, it hurt, but I understood the move. As such I had a harder time identifying or wanting to follow the 49ers once he left the team. I jumped ship. Mind you, the 49ers won a Super Bowl shortly after trading Montana, so jumping ship for me was not about leaving because things had gone bad.

So I moved on from the 49ers to the Chargers. I left a team that had 4 titles (5 if you count the one that Steve Young helped them win) for a team that had been to one Super Bowl and losing badly in it. Some would say I traded down. I was happy with the decision, I liked the direction of the Chargers.

Fast forward to today. The Chargers have moved to Los Angeles. A move that I am not fond of, and now the team may look a whole lot different next season. Phillip Rivers is a free agent and while I loved watching his career, it is time to make a change and move on. Melvin Gordon is a free agent and Austin Ekeler is a Restricted Free Agent so they could potentially have a brand-new back field.

So I have changed teams a couple of times. From 49ers to Chargers and from Cougars to Utes. When I was growing up, I was a BYU fan. Why, only because I was born in Provo and the Cougars played in Provo. I was a fan all through High School and into College. My first semester at the University of Utah in 2000 is when I changed. I had a public speaking class. I was in class the day I had paid my tuition, and I thought to myself, I have no connection to BYU, I am paying all this money to this school, there is no reason why I can’t cheer for this team. It helped that in that class were two players on the football team, it become easier for me to follow and cheer for the team. Especially since one of those players, Jordan Gross went on to play in the NFL and play in a Super Bowl.

We as fans should be able to change teams just as much as we have the right to change the store we shop in or the brand of toothpaste we use. What it does come down to is why.

I remember in 2003 when the Red Sox lost a game 7 in the Division Series to the Yankees, I had a friend that was a die-hard Red Sox fan. He said, "that's it. I am done. I am sick of losing, I am going to become a Yankee fan." It is within his right to change, I just question his motivation.

I remember wearing Red Sox apparel prior to 2004. I could go months without seeing another person wearing Red Sox apparel. Now I can go scarcely a week, without seeing someone else wearing Red Sox gear. I keep asking myself, where were you people prior to 2004?

So as a fan, do I have the right to change team? Yes I do. However, what I am unclear on is why and when can you change teams. When does it become “acceptable.”

Here are some reasons I think you should be able to trade teams. I think each of these reasons make it acceptable to trade team(s).

1 - A team changes locations - with the Raiders moving to Las Vegas and becoming closer to where you live, does that give one enough reason to trade teams. I would say yes. Also if you are say a San Diego native and your team moves away - you should be able to change teams.

2 - Your favorite player retires or changes teams. Let's say you are a big Bryce Harper fan. He leaves the Nationals for the Phillies, that would give you the right to change teams.

3 - Team undergoes new ownership.

4 - Team consistently underachieves consistently. See Cleveland Browns.

5 - Some controversy - It could be something like Bountygate with the Saints, Sign Stealing with the Astros, Black Sox scandal with the White Sox.

I guess what it really comes down to is, why are you changing teams. If the team you are jumping on is winning…..is that wrong. That’s up to you. As for me, I am taking a wait and see approach with the Chargers. I am not jumping ship but will be weighing my options. It is after all, the offseason and I as a fan am a free agent.

NFL Overtime Rules

Good luck to all 4 teams remaining this weekend. While I am not really pulling for any team this weekend, I do think that on the 100 Year Anniversary of the NFL, it would be epic if the Super Bowl included the two teams that faced each other in the very first Super Bowl (Kansas City and Green Bay). Plus I think a Rodgers-Mahomes match up would be a lot of fun to watch.

That being said, my one hope is that none of the games go into overtime. The overtime rules in the NFL are miserable and should be changed. Presently the team that wins the coin toss will get the ball (any coach would be fired on the spot if he won the coin toss and elected to kick off). If the team that wins the coin toss goes down and scores a touchdown, the game is over. However, if they go down and score a field goal, then the other team has a chance to get the ball. If they score a field goal, play moves on. If they score a touchdown, they win.If they don't score, game is over.

The best example of why I hate the overtime rules is Super Bowl LI. Atlanta goes up big in the game, New England comes back to tie it and force overtime. New England wins the toss, they go down and score a touchdown - game over.

So why is that bad. The best part of Atlanta's team, the offense did not see the field in overtime. Not one snap. Matt Ryan the league MVP did not even get on the field. While this is not diminishing the title by the Patriots, they did win the title under the current overtime rules, but the system needs to be changed.

Here is what I propose. Have the coin flip, like normal. Each team has one possession. If the score is still tied after each team has one possession, they go to the college overtime rules.Do the coin flip to decide who gets the ball first. Then each team gets a possession starting on the 25. If they score, the other team gets a chance to match it or better it, in the event the other team kicks a kick a field goal. The catch here is that both teams get a chance. Some will argue that this process will eliminate special teams. Not quite, they still have to kick extra points. (besides how many fans really go to games to see special teams) In college if both teams are still tied after the 2nd overtime, then they forgo the extra point and have to play for two, which I think the NFL should adopt as well.

Now in Super Bowl LI, if both teams had a chance of possession, and New England still wins, do you think Atlanta fans would feel jilted. Probably, but only because they were up 21-3 at half and ended up losing.But the catch is both teams would have had a chance. The current overtime rules are like going to extra innings in baseball and declaring the team that was first up the winner because they hit a home run.

The Saints fans would love this rule change as well since they had an overtime game against Minnesota in which Drew Brees did not see the field in overtime.

NFL - if the game is all about the fans, then please adopt these rules. Kick your current rules to the curb.

Sign Stealing

A lot of you have heard about the sign stealing that has happened, first with the Astros and then the Red Sox. Major League Baseball has issued a one year suspension for the Astros GM and Manager. The Astros then fired both the GM and Manager. Shortly thereafter, the Red Sox and their manager agreed to part ways. Now, Carlos Beltran who was hired as the manager of the Mets, stepped down as manager. He was a player on the 2017 Astros team.

Let me state, least their be any confusion, I do not agree with the sign stealing. Especially when it comes to using technology to do it. Both organizations were wrong.

However, and this is a big however, it does not rank nor should be put in the same light as the White Sox scandal when players threw the World Series. Nor is it on the same level as Pete Rose betting on baseball. (again I don't care that he bet on his team to win). It might be on the same par as the Minnesota Twins from years ago, where the organization would turn up the air conditioning in the Metrodome when the Twins were at bat.

This does not mean that MLB should strip titles. That is an over reaction. Let's be honest. If a player is on second base and he sees that the catcher is calling for a fast ball, there is way he will try and let the batter know, either by yelling the players first name or last name. That stuff has been going on for year. I do have a problem with this scandal in that they were using technology to do it.

If you want to compare this to something sports related - you can compare it to the Saints Bountygate scandal. BUT ONLY from the perspective of once punishments were doled out, their Super Bowl win that happened during the time of Bountygate was not removed. In my opinion Bountygate was more egregious than the sign stealing. 

Just because you steal a sign does not guarantee success. If a hitter is tipped off that a curve ball or fast ball is coming does not mean or guarantee a hit. Yes, it does help. But that knowledge does not guarantee the batter gets on base or drives a runner in. A hitter will still have to identify the location, adjust to the timing and square the bat on the ball. The hitter also has to adjust to any defensive shift. I am not being naive, I know that it helps knowing whats coming (especially if the pitcher can throw 3 or more pitches for strikes) but that knowledge alone does not translate to success.

One big omission in this whole thing is this. A GM and Managers have been held accountable. But no penalties for any of the players. (you can say that Beltran is being punished now) The players were as involved as the GM and Manager. They bought into it. Some could say, the players should receive fines at the bare minimum. However I would not suggest that as this will be far reaching and how do you determine which players participated. It would be an epic witch hunt.

The one fear I have is this - that Alex Cora, AJ Hinch and Jeff Luhnow are not able to get jobs in the future, once their suspensions are up. (still waiting to see what Cora's will be). You could also add Beltran to the list. If they continue to house a black eye for years to come then this is wrong.

The best thing MLB can do is just more on. The message has been sent. Let's all move on.