Fire Lynn - not so fast.

 

There has been a lot of rumbling about firing Chargers Coach Anthony Lynn. I get it – they lose close games. But let’s not move to quick on this. 

With Tyrod Taylor as the QB and their core of players what record did you think they were going to have at the beginning of the year? 

Looking at the schedule I had them going 7-9 (Note – this was after I heard that Derwin James was going to be done for the year). I mean they opened with 3 of the top 8 teams in the league in the Chiefs and on the road against Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Did you really think they were going to win those games? So, I had them starting 2-3 with wins over Bengals and Carolina. The other wins I thought we could get were Jacksonville, Raiders (at home), Miami, Jets, and Broncos at home. 7-9 – not a great record. So where are they now? They would need to win 4 or their last 6 games to reach 7 wins.  

Despite all that - there is one reason you do not get rid of Lynn. Justin Herbert. 

He is on pace to break the rookie record for passing yards in a season, in one less game. While I am impressed with the yards, I am more impressed with the Touchdown to Interception ratio. 22 TDs to 6 INTS. 

He is special and will continue to be special. When you have a special player, you build around him. If they fire Lynn, it will likely mean a new offensive coordinator and QB coach. People forget that Herbert probably would have had a better college career had he had consistent offensive coordinators and/or coaches. He had three different offensive coordinators and 3 different coaches in his 4 years there. 

Let’s compare Troy Aikman and Alex Smith. Troy had 5 different offensive coordinators in his career. That’s in 12 years. However of the first 9 years, he only had three, David Shula, Norv Turner and Ernie Zampese with only 2 different head coaches, Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer

Alex Smith had a new offensive coordinator each year for the first 5 years of his career as many as Aikman had his whole career. I am not saying Smith could have been as good as Aikman, I am just saying that I think that Smith would have been a lot better earlier in his career had the 49ers provided stability there in coaching.  

Which brings me to Herbert. 

He is on pace to pass for close to 4450 yards, which is just a shade under what we got from Rivers last year. However, unlike Rivers he is on pace to throw 36 TDs and 10 Ints, a far cry from the 23 TDs and 20 Ints we got last year. The best year Tyrod Taylor ever had was 3035 yards passing with 20 TDs and 6 Ints. 

He has talent. Build around him. Why blow up the team. We have a young nucleus. I mean Ekeler is still in his prime, as is Keenan Allen.  Jalen Guyton, Mike Williams and Hunter Henry can still develop and are young. On defense, Bosa is in his prime as is Derwin James. Add in Kenneth Murray and Jerry Tillery and we have the makings of a good team. 

So play out the season, bring back Lynn and Bradley. Bring in a new special teams coach. The special teams have killed us this year. In the draft target Offensive Linemen (talking 2-3), Linebackers and depth at Running back. See what you have next year. If the team does not take a big step up (likely since there is a lot of room to step up with a 3-7 record) then you make adjustments to the coaching staff as needed. 

Updated Red Sox Wish List

Wish List 

Bats – George Springer – Michael Brantley – Mitch Moreland  ------ (2 of 3) 

Pitchers – Trevor Bauer – Charlie Morton - Marcus Stromarn – Alex Wood – Jake Odorizzi – Liam Hendricks – Pedro Baez -------- ( 5 of 8 )

Updates – 

Marcus Stroman signed with Mets

Charlie Morton signed with Braves

NBA Draft night - Let's Change It Up.

 

The NBA draft is tonight. Here is the order of the top 12 picks in the Draft. 

1. Minnesota Timberwolves

2. Golden State Warriors

3. Charlotte Hornets

4. Chicago Bulls

5. Cleveland Cavaliers

6. Atlanta Hawks

7. Detroit Pistons

8. New York Knicks

9. Washington Wizards

10. Phoenix Suns

The concept for the draft has been around for years. All the teams that don’t make the playoffs are put into a lottery. The team with the worst record has the best chance of getting the top pick, 2nd worse team has the 2nd best chance and so on and so forth. 

I hope you can all see the glaring issue with this. 

That’s right – the Golden State Warriors have the 2nd pick in the draft. That’s right the team that went to 5 straight NBA finals starting in 2015 and won 3 Titles has the 2nd pick in the draft. Despite their record this year the core of the team is still intact, they were just hobbled by injuries.

Their record gave them the 2nd best chance to land the # 1 pick. However, their record this year should not mean they get the 2nd pick. The NBA needs to change up the Draft Lottery. 

The other glaring issue I have with this is that of all the non-playoff teams, Minnesota has the 4th most amount of wins the last 3 years. I get that they had the 2nd least amount of wins this year but still, I don't think they should get the 1st pick. 

So how would I change it up? And who would get the 1st pick?

Here is the process I would propose

Take all the non-playoff teams and calculate their record for the last 3 seasons (including the just completed year). The team with the least number of wins gets the 1st pick, 2nd worse record gets the 2nd pick and so on until all the non-playoff teams are slotted. Then take the records of the playoff teams and rank them from worse record to best record for the concluded season. Worse record gets the next pick after the lottery until that round is slotted. 

 If there are any ties with the non-playoff teams, take the record of the current season and if there is still a tie, look at their records 4 seasons back. 

If there is a tie with the playoff teams, take their record the past 3 seasons to break the tie, if there is still a tie, look at their records 4 seasons back. 

It’s simple. It does not introduce controversy. 

So with that formula here would be the 1st round slots for the draft

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non-playoff teams
	Pick		Wins last      3 years
	1	New York Knicks	67
	2	Chicago Bulls	71
	3	Atlanta Hawks	73
	4	Phoenix Suns	74
	5	Cleveland Cavaliers	88
	6	Memphis Grizzlies	89
	7	Sacramento Kings	97
	8	Charlotte Hornets	98
	9	Detroit Pistons	100	Detroit had a less wins this year - gets tie breaker over Washington
	10	Washington Wizards	100
	11	Minnesota Timberwolves	102
	12	New Orleans Pelicans	111
	13	San Antonio Spurs	127
	14	Golden State Warriors	130
Playoff teams			Record this year
	15	Orlando Magic	33
	16	Brooklyn Nets	35	Brooklyn had fewer wins (105) than Portland (137) last 3 years so they get the tie breaker
	17	Portland Trail Blazers	35
	18	Dallas Mavericks	43	Dallas had fewer wins (100) than Philadelphia (146) last 3 years so they get the tie breaker
	19	Philadelphia 76ers	43
	20	Miami Heat	44	Tie Breaker - wins last 3 years Miami (127) Oklahoma City (141) Utah (142) Houston (162)
	21	Oklahoma City Thunder	44
	22	Utah Jazz	44
	23	Houston Rockets	44
	24	Indiana Pacers	45
	25	Denver Nuggets	46
	26	Boston Celtics	48
	27	Los Angeles Clippers	49
	28	Los Angeles Lakers	52
	29	Toronto Raptors	53
	30	Milwaukee Bucks	56

The Warriors have almost twice as many wins as the Knicks the last 3 years and they get the 2nd pick and the Knicks, which have the worst record the last 3 years, are relegated to the 8th pick. The T-wolves have 35 more wins the last 3 years than the Knicks - 10 more per season and they get the 1st pick. Something has to change. 

This process is straight forward. Simple. Something the NBA Draft Lottery has not been as long as I can remember.

 

Step Aside Andrew Luck

 Andrew Luck holds the NFL record for most passing yards in a season by a rookie quarterback with 4,374 yards in 2012. That record is in danger of being broken, not just once but twice. 

Both Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are on pace to break the record held by Luck. 

Justin Herbert

In 7 games as a starter Justin has passed for 2,146 yards. He is on pace to pass for 4,598 yards this season. In order to break the record held by Luck, he only needs to average 279 yards a game the rest of the way. As an FYI, in his 7 starts, he has surpassed that in 5 starts. Two starts he did not eclipse 279. one start he passed for 264 and the other 278. 

The remaining games he plays are against Miami, Jets, Bills. Pats, Falcons, Raiders, Denver and Chiefs.With that schedule, I think he has a shot. These teams average giving up 253.65 yards a game. If he averages the same amount of yards those defenses gives up, he will have about 2,030 more passing yards. That added to the stats he has already done and he would have 4,175 yards. While that is still 198 yards short of the record of 4,374 yards passing, I think he can average a little more than the yards these teams are giving up. In order to break the record he only needs to pass for 25 more yards per game then those teams are giving up. Very very likely he breaks the record. 

One other thing to keep in mind, he has put nearly all these stats up with out the help of Austin Ekeler, who is slated to return in week 11. His presence and pass catching ability will help the offense. One could argue that with Austin in the backfield the Chargers may run more, which may be true but I think having Austin back there will open up things in the passing game. I mean teams are already biting on play action pass now against the Chargers, imagine what they would do with a threat like Austin in the backfield. 

Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow has passed for 2,272 yards thus far. He only needs to average 263 yards a game to break the record. While he has had two games where his yards passing were under 200 (193 vs the Chargers and 183 vs the Ravens) he has still averaged 284 yards passing a game. His remaining schedule consists of the Steelers, Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys, Steelers, Texans, and Ravens. If he averages the same amount of yards these teams are giving up he will have 1,837 more yards, making his total passing yards 4,109 yards, about 265 yards short of the record. So he would need to average 34 more yards against those teams than what they average giving up. While it may seem doable, he plays the Steelers twice and they give up 214.6 per game and they play the Ravens in which he passed for a paltry 183 yards. Oh and by the way he plays against Washington which gives up the least amount of passing yards a game at 185.6. 

Not an easy road ahead for him. 

I think Justin will break the record and Burrow will come very close but not quite make it. Either way both have improved their teams (despite the Chargers record) and added some energy into their fan bases. The impressive thing is, if Justin breaks the record he will do it in 15 games since he did not play in the 1st game of the season. 

I do think regardless of where they end up, that they both will break the record for most 300-yard passing games in a season by rookie quarterback. Andrew Luck has 6. Burrow has 5 and Herbert has 4. 

Sources

NFL Defensive Passing Yards

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=D&cat=T&sort=passypg

Red Sox Wish List

It’s that time of year when we all put together our Christmas List. With that in mind here are the some of the items on my Christmas List specific to the Red Sox 

Wish # 1

CF – Rumors are the Red Sox have reached out to Jackie Bradley Jr to gauge his interest in coming back. While I know a lot of Red Sox fans would like to see George Springer in CF next year, I for one feel better with JBJ’s glove in CF. While I know he is not a world beater with the bat. His defense makes up for it. I would like to see the Red Sox bring him back for 2 years, that would allow us to bring up Jarren Duran slowly. Plus if Duran is brought up next year and he looks legit, we can move JBJ’s contract at the deadline if we need another starter (see below). If we miss out on JBJ, then look to bring in Michael Brantley and have Andrew Benintendi slide over to CF. 

Wish # 2

2 Starting Pitchers – A lot of people are pointing at Trevor Bauer. While he will elevate any team that he goes to. Initially I say pass. Why? He will cost a lot of money and we already have a lot of money tied up in Sale and Eovaldi. However given that we won’t have Sale until midseason and with Eduardo Rodriguez a question mark as he recovers, I think it makes sense to bring Bauer in. So let me throw out Plan A and Plan B 

Plan A – Bring in Bauer and Marcus Stroman. That would make our rotation as follows:

Bauer 

E Rod 

Eovaldi

Stroman

Tanner Houck

Once Sale gets back we can slide Tanner or Stroman to bullpen, depending on how they are pitching. Although I really like the idea of converting Eovaldi to a closer down the line. He’s got the stuff for it and I think he would thrive in the role, however he will still be a sold # 3 starter. If we miss on Stroman – have Bloom see if we can bring in Charlie Morton, but only if we get Bauer and miss on Stroman. I like Stroman cause he has pitched in the AL East and has experience in the parks and against the teams in the AL East, although he was offered a qualifying offer so he will cost us a pick. 

Plan B – If we miss on Bauer. Go after two of the following three pitchers: Alex Wood, Jake Odorizzi and Marcus Stoman. But I would only do this if we think E Rod will be back 100% and we think Sale will be back 100%. If we are getting signs that E Rod or Sale will struggle or they do struggle next year. We go with Plan B and look to pick up a starter at the deadline next year. Signing Odorizzi will not cost us a draft pick. And if we miss on two of those targets put Pivetta and Houck at the back of the rotation and see how it goes. This would make our rotation:

E Rod

Eovaldi

Alex Wood/Jake Odorizzi/Marcus Stroman

Alex Wood/Jake Odorizzi/Marcus Stroman

Tanner Houck

Then slide in Sale once he is back. 

OR

E Rod

Eovaldi

Alex Wood/Jake Odorizzi/Marcus Stroman

Tanner Houck

Nick Pivetta

Then slide in Sale once he is back. 

Wish # 3 

2 Bullpen Arms

There are a lot of closer options out there. The good thing is, I think teams are going to be conservative in the off-season because of the limited profits they got in this Covid year. So this is who I would bring in. 

Liam Hendricks – Closer. A’s did not give him a qualifying offer meaning he wont cost us a draft pick. If we miss here, go after Brad Hand. 

Pedro Baez – Set up. I would give him closer like money so that we have two shut down guys at back of bullpen. If we cant bring in Baez look to bring in Blake Treinen. 

Wish # 4 

2B Position 

I really like bringing in Kolton Wong or Tommy La Stella. It would make sense however, I dont want to bring them in and limit a position for Jeter Downs. So I would go with an in-house option better. I think we should give the job to Michael Chavis and have Christian Arroyo as his back-up. I think giving Chavis consistent time at second will help him be more consistent at the plate. If he struggles, we can incorporate Jeter Downs later in the year. 

Wish # 5 

Bench

I think we need to bring back Mitch Moreland. I think having him and Bobby Dalbec manning first will give us some balance (righty-lefty) and gives us a great glove at 1st to come off the bench (in games where Dalbec is starting). Plus I think the mentoring he can do with Dalbec will be valuable not to mention having JD Martinez there to help Dalbec with the hitting aspect. 

Wish # 6

Extend Devers

We need to lock up Devers now, before he has another great season. I think we go after him hard to sign an extension so don’t have another will he stay, does he want to stay situation like we had with Mookie. Also negotiate with Dustin Pedroia to a settlement so we can open up a roster spot.

Lineup

If we did all these moves here would be your lineup 

        1 Alex Verdugo – RF – (L)

        2 Xander Bogaerts – SS – (R) 

        3 Rafael Devers – 3B – (L)

        4 JD Martinez – DH – (R)

        5 Mitch Moreland – 1B - (L) or Bobby Dalbec – 1B – (R)

        6 Christian Vazquez – C – (R)

        7 Andrew Benintendi – LF – (L)

        8 Michael Chavis – 2B – (R)

        9 Jackie Bradley Jr – CF –(L) or Michael Brantley – LF (with Andrew sliding to CF) (L)

26 man roster

1 C Christian Vazquez 

2 C Kevin Plawecki

3 1B Mitch Moreland 

4 1B Bobby Dalbec 

5 2B Michael Chavis 

6 3B Rafael Devers 

7 SS Xander Bogaerts 

8 UTL Christian Arroyo

9 RF Alex Verdugo 

10 CF Jackie Bradley Jr 

11 LF Andrew Benintendi 

12 UTL Jonathan Arauz

13 DH JD Martinez 

14 SP Trevor Bauer

15 SP Chris Sale

16 SP Nathan Eovaldi

17 SP Marcus Stroman

18 SP Tanner Houck

19 SP Eduardo Rodriguez

20 RP Liam Hendricks 

21 RP Pedro Baez 

22 RP Matt Barnes 

23 RP Ryan Braiser 

24 RP Darwinzon Hernandez 

25 RP Phillips Valdez 

26 RP Josh Osich

Note we can have Nick Pivetta on the roster until Sale is back and use him in long relief and spot starts. 

We add the following in estimated salary

Trevor Bauer – 130 Mil – 4 years

Marcus Stroman – 70 Mil – 4 years

Liam Hendriks – 32 Mil – 3 years

Pedro Baez – 24 mil – 3 years

Mitch Moreland – 4.5 Mil – 2 years

Jackie Bradley Jr – 16 Mil – 2 years or Michael Brantley 28 Mil – 2 years 

A couple of notes 

1 - 

If we do miss out on Bauer that would open up more money to go get Springer. I like Springer a lot, I just think we have bigger holes in pitching. If we do miss on Bauer and are able to bring in Stroman and another solid starter, and two solid bullpen arms, then I would take a look at Springer.. 

Ok I had to take a swing at this IF we get Springer - here is what I think our lineup would look like:

        1 Alex Verdugo – RF – (L)

        2 Xander Bogaerts – SS – (R) 

        3 Rafael Devers – 3B – (L)

        4 George Springer - CF - (R)

        5 JD Martinez – DH – (R)

        6 Mitch Moreland – 1B - (L) or Bobby Dalbec – 1B – (R)

        7 Christian Vazquez – C – (R)

        8 Andrew Benintendi – LF – (L)

        9 Michael Chavis – 2B – (R)

This lineup does remind me somewhat of the 2004 lineup in the amount of depth in the lineup. I know Andrew and Chavis have struggled but having them near the bottom of the lineup may be less pressure, then again they dont have much protection in the lineup down there. 

2 - 

If we do get Bauer and miss on Stroman, I would lobby hard to bring in Morton. I mean can you imagine the following rotation we would have near the end of next year

Bauer

Sale

E Rod

Morton

Eovaldi 

This of course is IF everyone comes back healthy. 

3 - 

If we miss out on Bauer and Stroman, I would bring in one free agent starter and see what Pivetta and Houck can do on the back end of the rotation with Sale, Eovaldi and E Rod managing the top of the rotation.