If you have not checked the standings in the NBA, you should. The Golden State Warriors are sitting in last place in the entire NBA. They have only won 10 games. That is in large part to Klay Thompson being out the whole year and Stephen Curry only having played in 4 games. I guarantee if they were both healthy the record of that team would be much different.
So if you are the Warrriors Coach or GM, what do you do. There is no reason to bring those players back early. Let them rest up. It means more to the franchise if they stay near the bottom. They have a 14% chance of winning the top pick in the draft if they finish with the worst record in the league. Do they really need the top pick in the draft. No - they are a Title Contender with Curry and Thompson on the court, why should they have the possibility of getting the top pick in the draft.
If you think this scenario as it is playing out seems familiar, you are right. It happened when the Spurs David Robinson was out most of the year in 1996-1997 with back problems. (he did play in 6 games that year). The team struggles, became a lottery team and ended up drafting Tim Duncan. Several titles later, that move played out for the Spurs.
The league needs to change the lottery. One small suggestion to make the system work better.
Instead of the draft being based merely on the prior years standings, how about we base it off the prior 3 years standings. Makes sense to me.
In the instance of the Spurs, this was the draft order and the record of each team the year that Tim Duncan was drafted (1997):
1 San Antonio Spurs 20-62
2 Philadelphia Sixers 22-60
3 Boston Celtics 15-67
4 Vancouver Grizzlies 14-68
5 Denver Nuggets 21-61
6 Boston Celtics 15-67
7 New Jersey Nets 26-56
8 Golden State Warriors 30-52
9 Toronto Raptors 30-52
10 Milwaukee Bucks 33-49
11 Sacramento Kings 34-48
12 Indiana Pacers 39-43
13 Cleveland Cavaliers 42-40
1 Philadelphia 64 182
2 LA Clippers 82 164
3 Boston 83 163
4 NJ Nets 86 160
5 Dallas 86 160
6 Minnesota 87 159
7 Milwaukee 92 154
8 Golden State 92 154
9 Denver 97 149
10 Washington 104 142
11 Sacramento 112 134
12 Detroit 128 118
13 Cleveland 132 114
If you look at these standings, San Antonio would not have been in the lottery based on the 3 year record. This would give teams that have had the worst records over the past 3 seasons the best chances to improve.
If we use the same process on this years standings - this would be the draft lottery order for this year, based on standings as of 1-24-2020
1 Golden St. 10 36
2 Atlanta 11 34
3 New York 12 33
4 Cleveland 12 33
5 Washington 15 29
6 Charlotte 15 30
7 Minnesota 15 29
8 Sacramento 15 29
9 Detroit 17 28
10 Chicago 17 29
11 New Orleans 17 28
12 Brooklyn 18 25
13 Phoenix 18 26
Again Golden State would have the best chance to win the lottery based on the current set up. If we factor in the records of the prior 3 years, here is what the order would be:
1 New York 58 141
2 Phoenix 58 150
3 Atlanta 64 145
4 Chicago 66 144
5 Memphis 75 133
6 Cleveland 81 128
7 Sacramento 81 127
8 Dallas 85 123
9 Brooklyn 88 119
10 Orlando 88 121
11 Charlotte 90 119
12 Washington 90 118
13 Detroit 97 112
Again you will notice the team with the best chance in the current format, Golden State is not even in the top 13 lottery teams. I think that the 3 year record is more indicative of allowing teams that are near the bottom to have a better chance at the top pick.
One thing I want to be clear. I don't think the Spurs were wrong in not rushing David Robinson back in 1996-1997 season and I don't think the Warriors are wrong for not rushing either Curry or Thompson back. Both players are fun to watch when they are healthy and given that they are out of playoff contention, let them heal up for next season.
One other bonus of this format is that it would lessen the likelihood of a team tanking one year to get a better chance at the top pick, since it would be based on the prior 3 seasons. The possibility of tanking is still there, but not as great as in the current process.
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