Fire Lynn - not so fast.

 

There has been a lot of rumbling about firing Chargers Coach Anthony Lynn. I get it – they lose close games. But let’s not move to quick on this. 

With Tyrod Taylor as the QB and their core of players what record did you think they were going to have at the beginning of the year? 

Looking at the schedule I had them going 7-9 (Note – this was after I heard that Derwin James was going to be done for the year). I mean they opened with 3 of the top 8 teams in the league in the Chiefs and on the road against Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Did you really think they were going to win those games? So, I had them starting 2-3 with wins over Bengals and Carolina. The other wins I thought we could get were Jacksonville, Raiders (at home), Miami, Jets, and Broncos at home. 7-9 – not a great record. So where are they now? They would need to win 4 or their last 6 games to reach 7 wins.  

Despite all that - there is one reason you do not get rid of Lynn. Justin Herbert. 

He is on pace to break the rookie record for passing yards in a season, in one less game. While I am impressed with the yards, I am more impressed with the Touchdown to Interception ratio. 22 TDs to 6 INTS. 

He is special and will continue to be special. When you have a special player, you build around him. If they fire Lynn, it will likely mean a new offensive coordinator and QB coach. People forget that Herbert probably would have had a better college career had he had consistent offensive coordinators and/or coaches. He had three different offensive coordinators and 3 different coaches in his 4 years there. 

Let’s compare Troy Aikman and Alex Smith. Troy had 5 different offensive coordinators in his career. That’s in 12 years. However of the first 9 years, he only had three, David Shula, Norv Turner and Ernie Zampese with only 2 different head coaches, Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer

Alex Smith had a new offensive coordinator each year for the first 5 years of his career as many as Aikman had his whole career. I am not saying Smith could have been as good as Aikman, I am just saying that I think that Smith would have been a lot better earlier in his career had the 49ers provided stability there in coaching.  

Which brings me to Herbert. 

He is on pace to pass for close to 4450 yards, which is just a shade under what we got from Rivers last year. However, unlike Rivers he is on pace to throw 36 TDs and 10 Ints, a far cry from the 23 TDs and 20 Ints we got last year. The best year Tyrod Taylor ever had was 3035 yards passing with 20 TDs and 6 Ints. 

He has talent. Build around him. Why blow up the team. We have a young nucleus. I mean Ekeler is still in his prime, as is Keenan Allen.  Jalen Guyton, Mike Williams and Hunter Henry can still develop and are young. On defense, Bosa is in his prime as is Derwin James. Add in Kenneth Murray and Jerry Tillery and we have the makings of a good team. 

So play out the season, bring back Lynn and Bradley. Bring in a new special teams coach. The special teams have killed us this year. In the draft target Offensive Linemen (talking 2-3), Linebackers and depth at Running back. See what you have next year. If the team does not take a big step up (likely since there is a lot of room to step up with a 3-7 record) then you make adjustments to the coaching staff as needed.